A University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) study finds the overall year-over-year job growth in California remains steady with no significant change in May 2014. While overall job growth in California put employment numbers close the 2007 employment peak, population growth in the Golden State requires additional years of effort before the same share of the population is employed as in 2007 . According to ISEA estimates, both year-over-year and month-over-month growth by zip code was strongest in Northern California and the Central Valley, with a slight shift in growth rates away from Northern California to the Central Valley as compared to last month.
The Inland Empire shows moderate, homogenous job growth across the whole area with further slowdown as compared to April 2014. Fresno shows the strongest job growth overall (dark green with more than 5% growth). In addition, job growth in the Sacramento area has improved with more locations showing significant job growth in May 2014. Most other regions in Northern California still show a moderate but steady pace of job growth except Yuba City, Nevada City, Sonora, the southern area of Modesto, and Madera where moderate to significant job losses appear. Southern California shows a similar pattern as April 2014, but with slower growth overall and more locations appearing idling (-1% to 1% job growth).
Overall month-over-month job growth in Southern California was small in May 2014 with almost no areas showing moderate growth identified by the light green color on the map (1% to 3% job growth). Overall month-over-month job growth in Northern California also has slowed somewhat although with large regions in San Jose, and San Francisco still idling (-1% to 1% job growth). Santa Rosa, Napa, San Rafael, Oroville, Santa Cruz, Salinas and the surrounding areas of Stockton and Modesto continued their growth at a moderate pace. Fresno also shows moderate job growth month-over-month.
Year-over-Year Metro Market Findings in Southern CaliforniaINLAND EMPIRE
The year-over-year job growth in Riverside and San Bernardino counties has stayed constant at around 2.4% in May 2014.
Geographic growth patterns remain virtually unchanged as compared to last month, however with fewer areas showing significant job growth (more than 3%, medium dark green) with no locations shedding jobs.
LOS ANGELES COUNTY
Similarly, the year-over-year job growth in Los Angeles County has stayed constant around 2.2% in May 2014, which is almost identical to the previous month.
The whole county still appears patchy within the positive job growth zone where locations with moderate job growth (1% to 3%) are right next to areas with significant job growth (more than 3%). The idling (-1% to 1% job growth) locations remain in San Fernando, Calabasas, Covina, Alhambra, and the area south of Los Angeles.
The year-over-year job growth in Orange County has decreased this month with the average job growth rate dropping from 2.2% in March to 1.8% in April to 1.5% in May 2014.
Most of the county still appears light green (1% to 3% moderate job growth), all significant job growth areas from last month have stepped back. However, in addition to the area east of Sunset Beach, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach and the area east of Irvine, the idling regions (-1% to 1% job growth) have expanded further.
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
The year-over-year job growth in San Diego County has remained constant this month with the average job growth rate hovering around 2.2% in May 2014.
The whole county still shows moderate (1% to 3%) to significant (more than 3%) job growth with only few small locations appearing idling status (-1% to 1% job growth). As in the previous month, the medium green zone (more than 3% significant job growth) has concentrated in Fallbrook, San Luis Rey, Vista, Jesmond Dene, Escondido, Del Dios, Rancho Santa Fe, Solana Beach, Eucalyptus Hills, Moreno, Bostonia, Santee, Casa de Oro, and San Diego downtown. There are no locations shedding jobs this month.
The researchers combined today’s data release on employment by industry from the California Employment Development Department with business pattern data by zip code and industry from the U.S. Census Bureau to arrive at their projected values. The researchers point out that, given the data available to them, their projected values are only rough approximations of the true values, and that accuracy is higher for counties with larger populations. Despite those shortcomings, the observed patterns should still be helpful for decision makers in politics, businesses and organizations to determine where to best direct their efforts.
About the University of Redlands Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA)
The Institute for Spatial Economic Analysis (ISEA) serves regional, national and global business and government leaders in their needs to better understand how socio-economic phenomena affect their communities. A division of the University of Redlands School of Business, ISEA publishes ongoing, timely reports covering retail, employment, housing, logistics and other special topics. A key distinction is its ability to illustrate economic trends and patterns through the use of geo-spatial mapping techniques. In addition, ISEA’s ability to provide Zip code level analysis for many of its reports provides unprecedented detail. Current ISEA economic data and interactive maps may be found at http://isea.redlands.edu